MEMORANDUM TO: AMERICAN SENIORS ASSN LEADERSHIP
FROM: RALPH REED
SUBJ: 2008 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN
DATE: JUNE 6, 2008
With Barack Obama this week passing the magic number of 2,118 delegates needed to wrap up the Democratic presidential nomination, the most competitive and hotly contested primary contest since Reagan took on Gerald Ford in 1976 has finally come to an end. It was a sixteen-month, $500 million, bitter clash between two titans---with Hillary Clinton seeking to be the first woman and Obama seeking to be the first African-American to be a major party presidential nominee in U.S. history. Their marathon contest has quite literally rewritten the rules of presidential politics and turned out record numbers of voters to the polls.
Clinton formally suspends her campaign on Saturday with a unity event at which she will endorse Obama. The prayers of Republican strategists for a divided Democratic party will not be answered. Whatever her true feelings, Clinton will suck it up and embrace Obama because the Democrats are hungry for power, yearning to regain the White House, and will unite for the fall campaign.
2008 is a change election, something that Obama grasped and Clinton did not. Polls show that 81% of the American people say the country is headed in the wrong direction. In a recent Fox News poll, the electorate is expected to be 44% Democrat, 30% Republican, and 21% independent---a fourteen point turnout advantage for the Democrats. That advantage will probably narrow as the campaign continues. But with a soft economy, the war in Iraq in its sixth year, and the American people ready to turn the page on the Bush era, the Democrats have the wind at their backs.
In this environment, the Republicans chose in John McCain perhaps the only candidate who could win a general election in 2008. McCain may be the only candidate who could pull of f the hat trick needed to win: he will need to win 85-90% of Republicans, 20% of Democrats, and 52% of independents to win in November.
McCain can prevail if he does three things well:
1. Educate voters on Obama’s extreme views on issues as out of step with the American people.
Barack Obama is an attractive, articulate candidate with remarkable podium skills. If the election is about style, as it was at least in part in 1960 for John F. Kennedy, Obama wins. That is why McCain must define Obama on substance and stay focused on the issues. Obama has the most liberal voting record in the U.S. Senate according to the nonpartisan National Journal---a hard feat to pull off in a chamber that includes Ted Kennedy and Socialist Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. His associations with Reverend Jeremiah Wright, unrepentant domestic terrorist William Ayers, and convicted felon and Obama fundraiser Tony Rezko suggest a conventional liberal machine politician steeped in the byzantine and ethically clouded politics of Chicago’s south side. Obama has pledged to raise taxes to a level higher than under the Clinton presidency at a time of economic slowdown, meet with the world’s most notorious dictators (Chavez, Castro, Assad and Ajhmadinijad) in the first year of his presidency with no preconditions, and has dismissed culturally conservative voters in the heartland of the country as bitterly clinging to Bibles and guns out of a sense of economic resentment. These are not the record of a leader in tune with the common-sense values of the American people.
McCain needs to make it clear that Obama’s views are out of the mainstream and are inconsistent with the view and values of most voters.
2. Keep the focus on national security and terrorism.
For Obama, the 2008 general election is Clinton redux: “it’s the economy, stupid.” With the current mortgage and credit crisis hobbling the U.S. economy and creating anxiety for many Americans, Obama wants to keep the focus on the pocketbook issues. That is why he is devoting two and a half weeks after securing the Democratic nomination to a series of speeches on the economy.
McCain needs to steer the debate back to national security and the war on terrorism. His credentials on national security are arguably the strongest of any major party nominee since Eisenhower: Annapolis graduate, war hero, POW at the Hanoi Hilton, the U.S. Navy’s liaison to Congress, 24 years in Congress, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and a prophet when it came to the “surge” that is now turning the tide in Iraq.
McCain has done well so far by inviting Obama to go to Iraq, bait that Obama found irresistible. He now pledges to visit Iraq before the election, insuring days of coverage on terrorism and security. Obama is only four years removed from the Illinois state Senate and is unprepared to be commander-in-chief at a time of war.
The McCain campaign needs to make the question for voters: “Who do I want making the decisions about how to defeat terrorists and the states that sponsor them in the next four years?” If that is what voters are asking them selves in the voting booth in November, McCain can win.
3. Run on an agenda of bold, conservative, honest change.
The American people want change, and McCain needs to offer it to them. But do they want higher taxes, higher energy prices, a bigger government, and retreat in the war on terrorism? Highly unlikely. That is why McCain needs to become the candidate of honest, conservative change.
He can do so by putting forward a bold agenda on the economy, taxes, government spending, tax reform, Medicare and Medicaid reform, Social Security reform, and health care. He can simultaneously energize grassroots conservatives in the GOP and reach out to independents by doing so. Part of this formula can be choosing a vice presidential running mate who has strong conservative credentials and has done well among non-traditional Republican voters---women, Hispanics, seniors, young people, and African-Americans.
If Obama is the change candidate and McCain is boxed into the status of Bush’s heir apparent, the dynamics of the election favor Obama. But if McCain can make the election a referendum on honest, conservative change as opposed to Obama’s extreme agenda of higher taxes and out-of-the mainstream views and values, he can win.
Bottom line as we head into the general election: the macro-political environment favors Democrats, but McCain can still win by running an aggressive, smart campaign that offers bold solutions while drawing stark contrasts with Obama and keeping the debate focused on national security challenges.
It is a big task for McCain. But he has proven himself to be a remarkably resilient and formidable candidate, first in 2000 against the George W. Bush juggernaut and now in 2008 as someone given up for dead who won the Republican nomination against long odds. No one should count John McCain out, even sailing into an electoral headwind.
MEMORANDUM TO: AMERICAN SENIORS ASSN LEADERSHIP
FROM: RALPH REED
SUBJ: 2008 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN
DATE: JUNE 6, 2008
With Barack Obama this week passing the magic number of 2,118 delegates needed to wrap up the Democratic presidential nomination, the most competitive and hotly contested primary contest since Reagan took on Gerald Ford in 1976 has finally come to an end. It was a sixteen-month, $500 million, bitter clash between two titans---with Hillary Clinton seeking to be the first woman and Obama seeking to be the first African-American to be a major party presidential nominee in U.S. history. Their marathon contest has quite literally rewritten the rules of presidential politics and turned out record numbers of voters to the polls.
Clinton formally suspends her campaign on Saturday with a unity event at which she will endorse Obama. The prayers of Republican strategists for a divided Democratic party will not be answered. Whatever her true feelings, Clinton will suck it up and embrace Obama because the Democrats are hungry for power, yearning to regain the White House, and will unite for the fall campaign.
2008 is a change election, something that Obama grasped and Clinton did not. Polls show that 81% of the American people say the country is headed in the wrong direction. In a recent Fox News poll, the electorate is expected to be 44% Democrat, 30% Republican, and 21% independent---a fourteen point turnout advantage for the Democrats. That advantage will probably narrow as the campaign continues. But with a soft economy, the war in Iraq in its sixth year, and the American people ready to turn the page on the Bush era, the Democrats have the wind at their backs.
In this environment, the Republicans chose in John McCain perhaps the only candidate who could win a general election in 2008. McCain may be the only candidate who could pull of f the hat trick needed to win: he will need to win 85-90% of Republicans, 20% of Democrats, and 52% of independents to win in November.
McCain can prevail if he does three things well:
1. Educate voters on Obama’s extreme views on issues as out of step with the American people.
Barack Obama is an attractive, articulate candidate with remarkable podium skills. If the election is about style, as it was at least in part in 1960 for John F. Kennedy, Obama wins. That is why McCain must define Obama on substance and stay focused on the issues. Obama has the most liberal voting record in the U.S. Senate according to the nonpartisan National Journal---a hard feat to pull off in a chamber that includes Ted Kennedy and Socialist Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. His associations with Reverend Jeremiah Wright, unrepentant domestic terrorist William Ayers, and convicted felon and Obama fundraiser Tony Rezko suggest a conventional liberal machine politician steeped in the byzantine and ethically clouded politics of Chicago’s south side. Obama has pledged to raise taxes to a level higher than under the Clinton presidency at a time of economic slowdown, meet with the world’s most notorious dictators (Chavez, Castro, Assad and Ajhmadinijad) in the first year of his presidency with no preconditions, and has dismissed culturally conservative voters in the heartland of the country as bitterly clinging to Bibles and guns out of a sense of economic resentment. These are not the record of a leader in tune with the common-sense values of the American people.
McCain needs to make it clear that Obama’s views are out of the mainstream and are inconsistent with the view and values of most voters.
2. Keep the focus on national security and terrorism.
For Obama, the 2008 general election is Clinton redux: “it’s the economy, stupid.” With the current mortgage and credit crisis hobbling the U.S. economy and creating anxiety for many Americans, Obama wants to keep the focus on the pocketbook issues. That is why he is devoting two and a half weeks after securing the Democratic nomination to a series of speeches on the economy.
McCain needs to steer the debate back to national security and the war on terrorism. His credentials on national security are arguably the strongest of any major party nominee since Eisenhower: Annapolis graduate, war hero, POW at the Hanoi Hilton, the U.S. Navy’s liaison to Congress, 24 years in Congress, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and a prophet when it came to the “surge” that is now turning the tide in Iraq.
McCain has done well so far by inviting Obama to go to Iraq, bait that Obama found irresistible. He now pledges to visit Iraq before the election, insuring days of coverage on terrorism and security. Obama is only four years removed from the Illinois state Senate and is unprepared to be commander-in-chief at a time of war.
The McCain campaign needs to make the question for voters: “Who do I want making the decisions about how to defeat terrorists and the states that sponsor them in the next four years?” If that is what voters are asking them selves in the voting booth in November, McCain can win.
3. Run on an agenda of bold, conservative, honest change.
The American people want change, and McCain needs to offer it to them. But do they want higher taxes, higher energy prices, a bigger government, and retreat in the war on terrorism? Highly unlikely. That is why McCain needs to become the candidate of honest, conservative change.
He can do so by putting forward a bold agenda on the economy, taxes, government spending, tax reform, Medicare and Medicaid reform, Social Security reform, and health care. He can simultaneously energize grassroots conservatives in the GOP and reach out to independents by doing so. Part of this formula can be choosing a vice presidential running mate who has strong conservative credentials and has done well among non-traditional Republican voters---women, Hispanics, seniors, young people, and African-Americans.
If Obama is the change candidate and McCain is boxed into the status of Bush’s heir apparent, the dynamics of the election favor Obama. But if McCain can make the election a referendum on honest, conservative change as opposed to Obama’s extreme agenda of higher taxes and out-of-the mainstream views and values, he can win.
Bottom line as we head into the general election: the macro-political environment favors Democrats, but McCain can still win by running an aggressive, smart campaign that offers bold solutions while drawing stark contrasts with Obama and keeping the debate focused on national security challenges.
It is a big task for McCain. But he has proven himself to be a remarkably resilient and formidable candidate, first in 2000 against the George W. Bush juggernaut and now in 2008 as someone given up for dead who won the Republican nomination against long odds. No one should count John McCain out, even sailing into an electoral headwind.
MEMORANDUM TO: AMERICAN SENIORS ASSN LEADERSHIP
FROM: RALPH REED
SUBJ: 2008 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN
DATE: JUNE 6, 2008
With Barack Obama this week passing the magic number of 2,118 delegates needed to wrap up the Democratic presidential nomination, the most competitive and hotly contested primary contest since Reagan took on Gerald Ford in 1976 has finally come to an end. It was a sixteen-month, $500 million, bitter clash between two titans---with Hillary Clinton seeking to be the first woman and Obama seeking to be the first African-American to be a major party presidential nominee in U.S. history. Their marathon contest has quite literally rewritten the rules of presidential politics and turned out record numbers of voters to the polls.
Clinton formally suspends her campaign on Saturday with a unity event at which she will endorse Obama. The prayers of Republican strategists for a divided Democratic party will not be answered. Whatever her true feelings, Clinton will suck it up and embrace Obama because the Democrats are hungry for power, yearning to regain the White House, and will unite for the fall campaign.
2008 is a change election, something that Obama grasped and Clinton did not. Polls show that 81% of the American people say the country is headed in the wrong direction. In a recent Fox News poll, the electorate is expected to be 44% Democrat, 30% Republican, and 21% independent---a fourteen point turnout advantage for the Democrats. That advantage will probably narrow as the campaign continues. But with a soft economy, the war in Iraq in its sixth year, and the American people ready to turn the page on the Bush era, the Democrats have the wind at their backs.
In this environment, the Republicans chose in John McCain perhaps the only candidate who could win a general election in 2008. McCain may be the only candidate who could pull of f the hat trick needed to win: he will need to win 85-90% of Republicans, 20% of Democrats, and 52% of independents to win in November.
McCain can prevail if he does three things well:
1. Educate voters on Obama’s extreme views on issues as out of step with the American people.
Barack Obama is an attractive, articulate candidate with remarkable podium skills. If the election is about style, as it was at least in part in 1960 for John F. Kennedy, Obama wins. That is why McCain must define Obama on substance and stay focused on the issues. Obama has the most liberal voting record in the U.S. Senate according to the nonpartisan National Journal---a hard feat to pull off in a chamber that includes Ted Kennedy and Socialist Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. His associations with Reverend Jeremiah Wright, unrepentant domestic terrorist William Ayers, and convicted felon and Obama fundraiser Tony Rezko suggest a conventional liberal machine politician steeped in the byzantine and ethically clouded politics of Chicago’s south side. Obama has pledged to raise taxes to a level higher than under the Clinton presidency at a time of economic slowdown, meet with the world’s most notorious dictators (Chavez, Castro, Assad and Ajhmadinijad) in the first year of his presidency with no preconditions, and has dismissed culturally conservative voters in the heartland of the country as bitterly clinging to Bibles and guns out of a sense of economic resentment. These are not the record of a leader in tune with the common-sense values of the American people.
McCain needs to make it clear that Obama’s views are out of the mainstream and are inconsistent with the view and values of most voters.
2. Keep the focus on national security and terrorism.
For Obama, the 2008 general election is Clinton redux: “it’s the economy, stupid.” With the current mortgage and credit crisis hobbling the U.S. economy and creating anxiety for many Americans, Obama wants to keep the focus on the pocketbook issues. That is why he is devoting two and a half weeks after securing the Democratic nomination to a series of speeches on the economy.
McCain needs to steer the debate back to national security and the war on terrorism. His credentials on national security are arguably the strongest of any major party nominee since Eisenhower: Annapolis graduate, war hero, POW at the Hanoi Hilton, the U.S. Navy’s liaison to Congress, 24 years in Congress, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and a prophet when it came to the “surge” that is now turning the tide in Iraq.
McCain has done well so far by inviting Obama to go to Iraq, bait that Obama found irresistible. He now pledges to visit Iraq before the election, insuring days of coverage on terrorism and security. Obama is only four years removed from the Illinois state Senate and is unprepared to be commander-in-chief at a time of war.
The McCain campaign needs to make the question for voters: “Who do I want making the decisions about how to defeat terrorists and the states that sponsor them in the next four years?” If that is what voters are asking them selves in the voting booth in November, McCain can win.
3. Run on an agenda of bold, conservative, honest change.
The American people want change, and McCain needs to offer it to them. But do they want higher taxes, higher energy prices, a bigger government, and retreat in the war on terrorism? Highly unlikely. That is why McCain needs to become the candidate of honest, conservative change.
He can do so by putting forward a bold agenda on the economy, taxes, government spending, tax reform, Medicare and Medicaid reform, Social Security reform, and health care. He can simultaneously energize grassroots conservatives in the GOP and reach out to independents by doing so. Part of this formula can be choosing a vice presidential running mate who has strong conservative credentials and has done well among non-traditional Republican voters---women, Hispanics, seniors, young people, and African-Americans.
If Obama is the change candidate and McCain is boxed into the status of Bush’s heir apparent, the dynamics of the election favor Obama. But if McCain can make the election a referendum on honest, conservative change as opposed to Obama’s extreme agenda of higher taxes and out-of-the mainstream views and values, he can win.
Bottom line as we head into the general election: the macro-political environment favors Democrats, but McCain can still win by running an aggressive, smart campaign that offers bold solutions while drawing stark contrasts with Obama and keeping the debate focused on national security challenges.
It is a big task for McCain. But he has proven himself to be a remarkably resilient and formidable candidate, first in 2000 against the George W. Bush juggernaut and now in 2008 as someone given up for dead who won the Republican nomination against long odds. No one should count John McCain out, even sailing into an electoral headwind.